文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Shi, Peijian 1 ; Chen, Zhenghong 2 ; Yang, Qingpei 3 ; Harris, Marvin K. 4 ; Xiao, Mei 5 ;
作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Fishery Sci, Yellow Sea Fisheries Res Inst, Key Lab Sustainable Dev Marine Fisheries, Minist Agr, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
2.China Meteorol Adm, Wuhan Inst Heavy Rain, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China
3.Jiangxi Agr Univ, Coll Forestry, Nanchang 330045, Peoples R China
4.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Entomol, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
5.Wuhan Univ, Coll Resource & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China
关键词： Accumulated degree days (ADD);base temperature;correlation coefficient;root mean square error;starting date
期刊名称：ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION （ 影响因子：2.912； 五年影响因子：3.271 ）
ISSN： 2045-7758
年卷期： 2014 年 4 卷 3 期
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： Climate change is expected to have a significant effect on the first flowering date (FFD) in plants flowering in early spring. Prunus yedoensis Matsum is a good model plant for analyzing this effect. In this study, we used a degree day model to analyze the effect of air temperatures on the FFDs of P.yedoensis at Wuhan University from a long-time series from 1951 to 2012. First, the starting date (=7 February) is determined according to the lowest correlation coefficient between the FFD and the daily average accumulated degree days (ADD). Second, the base temperature (=-1.2 degrees C) is determined according to the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) between the observed and predicted FFDs based on the mean of 62-year ADDs. Finally, based on this combination of starting date and base temperature, the daily average ADD of every year was calculated. Performing a linear fit of the daily average ADD to year, we find that there is an increasing trend that indicates climate warming from a biological climatic indicator. In addition, we find that the minimum annual temperature also has a significant effect on the FFD of P.yedoensis using the generalized additive model. This study provides a method for analyzing the climate change on the FFD in plants' flowering in early spring.
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