Combining a disease model with a crop phenology model to assess and map pest risk: Karnal bunt disease (Tilletia indica) of wheat in Europe
文献类型： 会议论文
第一作者： RH A Baker
作者： RH A Baker 1 ; C E Sansford 1 ; B Gioli 2 ; F Miglietta 2 ; J R Porter 3 ; F Ewert 4 ;
作者机构： 1.Central Science Laboratory, SandHutton, York YO411LZ, UK
2.IBMET-CNR, Via Caproni 8, 50145 Firenze, Italy
3.The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Hoebakkegaard Alle 2, Taastrup 2630, Denmark
4.Wageningen University, Haarweg 333, 6709 RZ Wageningen, Netherlands
会议名称： Symposium of the British Crop Protection Council
主办单位：
页码： 89-94
摘要： In order for plant pests to establish in a new area, the presence and distribution of food or host plants is critical. For some pathogens not only spatial but also temporal synchrony is required for survival since infection can occur only during specific host growth stages and climatic conditions. We used bread and durum wheat phenology models to predict the timing of the vulnerable developmental stages of wheat to infection by Tilletia indica, the causal agent of Karnal bunt, in Europe. Climatic data during these stages were then used to calculate an index of disease risk. The results were interpolated over the European landscape and mapped; summaries of the risks for each country were calculated. The arable areas of western and central Europe, particularly in France, were found to be most suitable for bread and feed wheat infection. The northern Italian plain and the important Italian pasta regions of Tuscany and Marche were most suitable for durum wheat infection.
分类号： S4-532
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