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Research on the Optimal Combination Forecasting Model for Vegetable Price in Hainan

文献类型： 会议论文

第一作者： YE Lu

作者： YE Lu 1 ; LI Yuping 1 ; LIU Yanqun 1 ; QIN Xiaoli 1 ; LIANG Weihong 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Institute of Scientific and Technical Information, CATAS/Key Lab of Tropical Crops Information Technology Application Research of Hainan Province, Hainan Danzhou 571737

关键词： vegetable price;triple exponential smoothing model;simple linear regression model;grey forecasting model;optimal combination forecasting model

会议名称： World agricultural outlook conference

主办单位：

页码： 76-85

摘要： Hainan is the national people's "Vegetable Basket" in winter.It is of great significance to accurately predict vegetable market price in Hainan for farmers cultivating "vegetable garden" good and government holding "vegetable basket" steady.The theory of combination forecasting is practicable in complex economic system.In view of complexity of vegetable market system, by using the data of vegetable market price in Hainan, three models are set up separately which are Triple exponential smoothing model, simple linear regression model, and grey forecasting model.Then, an optimal combination forecasting model is constructed based on three models above.The prediction results show that the prediction accuracy of the optimal combination forecasting model is superior to the single model, and the model overcomes limitation of the single model and effectively improves the prediction results of vegetable market price.

分类号： S

  • 相关文献

[1]Vegetable Price Prediction Based on PSO-BP Neural Network. Ye Lu,Li Yuping,Liang Weihong,Song Qidao,Liu Yanqun,Qin Xiaoli. 2015

[2]Vegetable Price Prediction Based on PSO-BP Neural Network. YE Lu,LI Yuping,LIANG Weihong,LIU Yanqun,SONG Qidao,QIN Xiaoli. 2015

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