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Application of SARIMA Model in Cucumber Price Forecast

文献类型： 会议论文

第一作者： Changshou Luo

作者： Changshou Luo 1 ; Liying Zhou 2 ; Qingfeng Wei 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Institute of Information on Science and Technology of Agriculture, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences

2.China Agricultural University Library

关键词： SARIMA model;Cucumber;Forecast;Time series

会议名称： International Conference onechatronics, Robotics and Automation

主办单位：

页码： 1653-1657

摘要： The price of vegetables is difficult to predict. In order to find an effective method, this paper fully considers the seasonal variations, and uses the seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average model （SARIMA） to forecast the cucumber price. The experimental results indicate that the SARIMA (1,0,1)(1,1,1)_(12) fits the cucumber market prices exactly in the previous months. Its average fitting error is 17%. The forecast data of twelve months in 2011 is in line with the actual trend. Its average error reaches 25%. The SARIMA model is feasible for short-term warning of vegetable price.

分类号： TP2-53

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