Future climate change impacts on wheat grain yield and protein in the North China Region

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Zhang, Di

作者： Zhang, Di;Ju, Hui;Zhang, Di;Liu, Jinna;Li, Dongxiao;Batchelor, William D.;Zhen, Xiaoxing;Wu, Dongxia

作者机构：

关键词： Winter wheat; Climate change; CERES-Wheat model; Wheat quality module; Grain protein components; Grain yield

期刊名称：SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT （ 影响因子：9.8； 五年影响因子：9.6 ）

ISSN： 0048-9697

年卷期： 2023 年 902 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： The threat of global climate change on wheat production may be underestimated by the limited capacity of many crop models to predict grain quality and protein composition. This study aimed to integrate a wheat quality module of protein components into the CROPSIM-CERES-Wheat model to investigate the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield and protein quality in the North China Region (NCR) using five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 under three shared socioeconomic pathways. The CERES-Wheat model with a quality module was developed and calibrated and validated using data from several sites in the NCR. The results of the calibration and validation showed that the modified CERES-Wheat model can accurately predict grain yield, protein content and its components in field experiments. Compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), the annual mean temperature and annual cumulative precipitation increased in the NCR in the 2030's, 2050's and 2080's. The radiation was higher under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, and lower under the SSP370 scenario compared to the baseline period. The anthesis and maturity date occurred earlier under the three future scenarios. The average grain yield increased by 13.3-30.9 % under three future scenarios. However, the regional average grain protein content of winter wheat in the future decreased by 2.0 %-3.5 %. The reduction in wheat grain protein at the regional was less pronounced under SSP370 than that under SSP126 and SSP585. The structural protein content of winter wheat decreased under future climate conditions compared with the baseline period, but the storage protein content showed the opposite tendency. The model provided a useful tool to study the effects of future climate on grain quality and protein composition. These findings are important for developing agricultural practices and strategies to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change on wheat pro-duction and wheat quality in the future.

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