Two-stage assessment: Towards a novel and holistic evaluation of urban geographically isolated wetland sustainability under global warming-induced dryness and loss

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Zhu, Jie

作者： Zhu, Jie;Cai, Andong;Zheng, Xiangqun;Zhu, Jie;Zhu, Jie;Lu, Dawei;Hou, Jiaqi;Zhang, Yunlong;Liu, Dan

作者机构：

关键词： Sustainability evaluation; Geographically isolated wetland; Loss; Distributed hydrological model; Global warming

期刊名称：JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION （ 影响因子：11.1； 五年影响因子：11.0 ）

ISSN： 0959-6526

年卷期： 2024 年 434 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Global wetlands are vital for carbon sequestration and providing ecosystem services in sustainable cities. However, urban wetlands, particularly geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), face threats from climate change and rapid urbanization. The vulnerability of GIWs, considering the critical water flux exchanges with their surroundings, remains unclear. This study proposes a groundbreaking two-stage assessment framework for evaluating GIW sustainability. The first stage quantifies dryness risk by assessing the absence of surface water storage. The second stage evaluates wetland loss risk by examining unsustainable conditions of lacking saturated soil. The framework utilizes a hydrological model incorporated with 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Moreover, Taguchi optimization is firstly introduced the hydroclimate field to improve simulation efficiency, with a new modification by a modified robust design. Results indicate an average 26 cm drop in the GIW water table by 2099 under moderate GCM scenarios, with an 86% risk of drying and a 64% risk of transitioning to loss. Notably, GIWs face over twice the risk of loss compared to upland areas, but demonstrate an advantage in water reservation under climate change. By proposing and employing this innovative approach, this research provides valuable insights into the interconnectedness of GIWs, offering a more comprehensive understanding of long-term urban ecological integrity. The findings also contribute to the long-term sustainability of urban wetlands and enhance the resilience of urban ecosystems.

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