Predicting potentially suitable Bletilla striata habitats in China under future climate change scenarios using the optimized MaxEnt model
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Luo, Ming 1 ; Yang, Pingfei 1 ; Yang, Lili 1 ; Zheng, Zhihong 1 ; Chen, Yaya 1 ; Li, Huan 1 ; Wu, Mingkai 1 ;
作者机构： 1.Guizhou Acad Agr Sci, Guizhou Inst Crop Germplasm Resources, Guiyang 550006, Peoples R China
2.Guizhou Engn Res Ctr Cultivat & Planting Chinese M, Guiyang 550006, Peoples R China
关键词： Potential suitable area; Climate change; Environmental variable; MaxEnt model; Distribution centroid; Shared socio-economic path
期刊名称：SCIENTIFIC REPORTS （ 影响因子：3.9； 五年影响因子：4.3 ）
ISSN： 2045-2322
年卷期： 2025 年 15 卷 1 期
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要：
Bletilla striata, an important traditional Chinese medicine resource, holds high medicinal and ornamental value. However, unscientific habitat selection for its cultivation has led to low yields and poor quality as medicinal materials in China. The optimized MaxEnt model is a powerful tool for analyzing the potential impacts of environmental factors on species distribution and predicting habitat changes under climate change. It offers great significance for the protection and development of B. striata in China. Based on 269 B. striata distribution records in China and 15 major environmental factors, this study simulated the distribution patterns of potentially suitable B. striata habitats under four different climate change scenarios (SSP1.26, SSP2.45, SSP3.70, and SSP5.85) and three time periods (the current period, 2050s, and 2070s). The analysis was conducted using the MaxEnt model which exhibited high predictive accuracy and minimal overfitting. Solar radiation, annual temperature range and mean diurnal range were revealed as the dominant factors affecting B. striata distribution, and their thresholds were <= 16,265.39 kJ/m2
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