文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Wang, Yilu ¹ ; Baum, Stephen M. ² ; Critcher, Clayton R. ² ;

作者机构： 1.Peking Univ, Sch Psychol & Cognit Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

2.Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA USA

3.Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, 545 Student Serv Bldg 1900, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

关键词： multicomponent risk; confidence; myopia; choice bracketing; anticipated experience

期刊名称：JOURNAL OF PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY （ 影响因子：7.6； 五年影响因子：9.2 ）

ISSN： 0022-3514

年卷期： 2023 年

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Succeeding at a task often depends on the success or failure of component events. Such multicomponent risks can take one of two general forms. Disjunctive risks require the success of just one such component; conjunctive risks, all of them. Seven studies converge to show people prefer to consolidate disjunctive risks into fewer components and to spread conjunctive risks across more components, independent of the objective or subjective implications for the probability of overall success. These tendencies were reflected in preferences for how to approach potential investors, decisions about how much to invest in different business opportunities, and gamble valuations. Such preferences were specific to multicomponent risks as compared to single-component risks whose overall prospects for success were yoked to participants' own perceptions of a matched multicomponent risk. Participants confronted multicomponent risks myopically, swayed by whether positive or disappointing news would likely be delivered at a single point in time instead of by the overall prospects for success. Supporting this account, these preferences for consolidating or spreading risks were reduced when the components' outcomes would be revealed at once. Anticipated confidence while proceeding through the risk (even controlling for perceived probabilities of success) explained these preferences. After all, these preferred risk structures actually do allow people to traverse a multicomponent risk with more confidence that the next piece of news they receive will be positive (or not negative), though such myopic perspectives neglect just how many components will offer a chance for success (disjunctive risks) or the potential for failure (conjunctive risks).