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Ensemble forecasting of the global potential distribution of the invasive Chinese mitten crab, Eriocheir sinensis

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Zhang, Zhixin 1 ; Capinha, Cesar 2 ; Weterings, Robbie 4 ; McLay, Colin L. 5 ; Xi, Dan 6 ; Lue, Hongjian 7 ; Yu, Lingy 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Tokyo Univ Marine Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Marine Sci & Technol, Minato Ku, Tokyo 1088477, Japan

2.Univ Porto, Ctr Invest Biodiversidade & Recursos Genet, CIBIO, InBIO, P-4485661 Vairao, Portugal

3.Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Agron, CEABN, InBIO,Ctr Estudos Ambientais Prof Baeta Neves, P-1349017 Lisbon, Portugal

4.Cat Drop Fdn, NL-9204 Drachten, Netherlands

5.Univ Canterbury, Sch Biol Sci, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand

6.Weifang Univ, Coll Biol & Agr Engn, Key Lab Biochem & Mol Biol Univ Shandong, Weifang 261061, Peoples R China

7.Southwest Univ, Coll Anim Sci & Technol, Key Lab Freshwater Fish Reprod & Dev, Minist Educ, Chongqing 400715, Peoples R China

8.Chinese Acad Fishery Sci, Pearl River Fisheries Res Inst, Guangzhou 510380, Guangdong, Peoples R China

关键词： Invasive species; Eriocheir sinensis; Management strategies; Species distribution modelling

期刊名称：HYDROBIOLOGIA （ 影响因子：2.694； 五年影响因子：2.781 ）

ISSN： 0018-8158

年卷期： 2019 年 826 卷 1 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Invasive alien species have posed substantial threats to freshwater ecosystems and are generally difficult and cost-intensive to eradicate once established. Therefore, it is of great importance to identify their potential distribution and take preventive actions. Species distribution modelling has been regarded as a powerful tool to identify areas that provide suitable environmental conditions for the establishment of invaders. In this study, an ensemble species distribution model was developed for the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis), by using 188 worldwide occurrence records and 11 environmental variables to predict its global potential distribution in freshwater habitats. The ensemble model showed high predictive performance and indicated that annual mean temperature was the most important environmental variable that limits the distribution of this invasive crustacean. The model successfully predicted the known distribution of Chinese mitten crab in its native range and invasive ranges and suggested that this invader has not yet fully realized its potential distribution in Europe and North America. The model also predicted some additional suitable areas where this crab has not yet been observed (Japan, part of South America, Australia, and New Zealand). Management strategies are proposed to control this invasive crab in light of these results.

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