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Global warming and shifts in cropping systems together reduce China's rice production

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Chen, Changqing 1 ; van Groenigen, Kees Jan 3 ; Yang, Huiyi 4 ; Hungate, Bruce A. 5 ; Yang, Bing 1 ; Tian, Yunlu 6 ; C 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Nanjing 210095, Peoples R China

2.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Crop Sci, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

3.Univ Exeter, Dept Geog, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon, England

4.Rothamsted Res, Sustainable Soils & Grassland Syst Dept, Okehampton EX20 2SB, England

5.No Arizona Univ, Ctr Ecosyst Sci & Soc, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA

6.Nanjing Agr Univ, Inst Rice, Nanjing 210095, Peoples R China

7.Jiangxi Acad Agr Sci, Soil & Fertilizer & Resources & Environm Inst, Nanchang 330200, Jiangxi, Peoples R China

8.Heilongjiang Acad Agr Sci, Inst Crop Cultivat & Tillage, Harbin 150086, Peoples R China

9.Jiangxi Agr Univ, Minist Educ, Nanchang 330045, Jiangxi, Peoples R China

10.Jiangxi Agr Univ, Jiangxi Key Lab Crop Physiol Ecol & Genet Breedin, Nanchang 330045, Jiangxi, Peoples R China

关键词： Food security; Warming; Climate change; Meta-analysis; Cropping system

期刊名称：GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY-AGRICULTURE POLICY ECONOMICS AND ENVIRONMENT （ 影响因子：7.772； 五年影响因子：9.262 ）

ISSN： 2211-9124

年卷期： 2020 年 24 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Climate warming is widely expected to affect rice yields, but results are equivocal and variation in rice cropping systems and climatic conditions complicates country-scale yield assessments. Here we show, through meta-analysis of field warming experiments, that yield responses to warming differ strongly between China's rice cropping systems. Whereas warming increases yields in "single rice" systems, it decreases yields in "middle rice" systems and has contrasting effects for early and late rice in "double rice" systems. We further show that the contribution of these cropping systems to China's total rice production has shifted dramatically over recent decades. We estimate that if the present structure of rice cropping systems persists, warming will reduce China's total rice production by 5.0% in 2060. However, if the recent decline in the area of double rice systems continues, China's rice production may decrease by 13.5%. Our results underline the need for maintaining the current area of China's "double rice" cropping system and for technological innovations in multiple rice cropping systems to ensure food security in a warming climate.

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