Increases in forest carbon stocks of up to 32% by 2100 across the subalpine forests of the Tibetan Plateau
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Li, Ting 1 ; Wang, Qi 2 ; Wang, Huan 1 ; Wang, Jicheng 1 ; Li, Xiaorui 1 ; Liao, Zhanmang 4 ; Luo, Peng 5 ; Lai, Changhong 7 ; Liu, Yang 8 ; Jian, Yi 9 ;
作者机构： 1.Sichuan Normal Univ, Fac Geog Resource Sci, Chengdu 610068, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Fishery Sci, Key Lab Aquat Genom, Minist Agr, Beijing 100141, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Fishery Sci, Beijing Key Lab Fishery Biotechnol, Beijing 100141, Peoples R China
4.Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Sch Resources & Environm, Chengdu 611731, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Chengdu Inst Biol, CAS Key Lab Mt Ecol Restorat & Bioresource Utiliza, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Chengdu Inst Biol, Ecol Restorat Biodivers Conservat Key Lab Sichuan, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
7.Sichuan Prov Inst Forestry & Grassland Inventory &, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
8.Sichuan Prov Forestry Invest & Design Res Inst Co, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China
9.Sichuan Acad Forestry, Ecol Restorat & Conservat Forest & Wetland Key Lab, Chengdu 610081, Peoples R China
关键词： Climate velocity; Forest recovery; Growth; Mortality; Mountain forests; Stand age
期刊名称：ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS （ 影响因子：7.4； 五年影响因子：7.2 ）
ISSN： 1470-160X
年卷期： 2025 年 176 卷
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： Forest carbon stocks dynamics, influenced by forest migration, growth, and mortality under climate change, remain insufficiently understood, particularly regarding their extent, timing, and geographic distribution. We studied data from 1,248 forest plots on the Tibetan Plateau to understand how forest carbon dynamics respond to climate and forest age and to predict future changes under different climate scenarios. Our findings suggest that forest carbon stocks in the eastern mountains of the Tibetan Plateau could increase by up to 32 % by 2100, reaching saturation as growth fluxes declines over time. However, growth fluxes offset the increase in mortality fluxes, which mitigates carbon losses. We also predicted that the carbon stocks distribution center will shift northwestward by 0.23 km/year and upslope by 0.25 m/year. The distribution of growth and mortality fluxes varies geographically. Regions with higher forest growth fluxes, particularly along the southern and northern edges and in transition zones, will experience faster precipitation migration. In contrast, areas on the northwestern edge and at lower altitudes, where temperature migration is faster, face elevated forest mortality risks. These results highlight the need for ecological compensation to mitigate increased mortality-related carbon and ensure sustainable forest management.
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