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Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Net Anthropogenic Phosphorus Inputs (NAPIs) and Their Impacts in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Using Monte Carlo Simulations and Sensitivity Analysis

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Ma, Hua 1 ; Liu, Xiaotong 2 ; Lei, Qiuliang 1 ; Luo, Jiafa 3 ; Di, Hongjie 4 ; Du, Xinzhong 1 ; Zhao, Ying 2 ; Zhang, Xuejun 2 ; Liu, Hongbin 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, State Key Lab Efficient Utilizat Arid & Semiarid A, Key Lab Nonpoint Source Pollut Control,Minist Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

2.Ningxia Acad Agr & Forestry Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Environm, Yinchuan 750002, Peoples R China

3.AgResearch Ltd, Ruakura Res Ctr, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand

4.Lincoln Univ, Ctr Soil & Environm Res, Christchurch 7647, New Zealand

关键词： net anthropogenic phosphorus inputs (NAPIs); spatio-temporal distribution; sensitivity analysis; non-point pollution; Monte Carlo method; model uncertainty

期刊名称：WATER （ 影响因子：3.0； 五年影响因子：3.3 ）

ISSN：

年卷期： 2024 年 16 卷 22 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： This study employed the Net Anthropogenic Phosphorus Inputs (NAPI) model to assess the impact of human activities on phosphorus input in a watershed, analyzing county-level statistical data and NAPI model parameters from 1991 to 2020. The Monte Carlo method was used for a quantitative analysis of the model parameters' effects on each NAPI component and the overall simulation results. The sensitivity index method identified each component's sensitive parameters. The study found that the lowest NAPI value was 454 kg/(km2a) in 1991 and the highest was 1336 kg/(km2a) in 2003. NAPI in Ningxia showed an overall upward trend from 1991 to 1999, a slight decrease from 1999 to 2003, and a slight increase from 2003 to 2020, with fertilizer being the main contributing factor, accounting for 77.4% of the total input. On a spatial scale, NAPI in Ningxia was significantly correlated with land use patterns, showing higher values in the northern and southern regions compared to the central part. The NAPI values derived from Monte Carlo simulations with appropriate parameters ranged from -24.83% to 31.49%. The study highlighted the net food and feed imports component as having the highest uncertainty, impacting simulation results within a range of -23.89% to 53.98%. It was observed that the larger a component's proportion in the NAPI model, the more sensitive its parameters, with the phosphorus fertilizer (Pfer) component's parameters being notably more sensitive than those of the food/feed phosphorus input and the non-food phosphorus input (Pnf) components. These findings can inform phosphorus pollution control policies in Northwest China, while the selection of sensitive parameters provides a useful reference for future NAPI research in other regions.

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