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Forecasting regional apple first flowering using the sequential model and gridded meteorological data with spatially optimized calibration

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Zhu, Yaohui 1 ; Yang, Guijun 1 ; Yang, Hao 1 ; Guo, Liang 5 ; Xu, Bo 1 ; Li, Zhenhai 1 ; Han, Shaoyu 1 ; Zhu, Xicun 6 ; Li, Zhenhong 4 ; Jones, Glyn 7 ;

作者机构： 1.Minist Agr & Rural Affairs, Key Lab Quantitat Remote Sensing Agr, Beijing 100097, Peoples R China

2.Beijing Forestry Univ, Sch Informat Sci & Technol, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

3.Natl Engn Res Ctr Informat Technol Agr, Beijing 100097, Peoples R China

4.Chang Univ, Coll Geol Engn & Geomat, Xian 710054, Peoples R China

5.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

6.Shandong Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Tai An 271018, Shandong, Peoples R China

7.Newcastle Univ, Sch Nat & Environm Sci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England

关键词： Apple first-flowering; Gridded meteorological data; Sequential model; Chill and heat requirement; Regional-scale forecast

期刊名称：COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE （ 影响因子：6.757； 五年影响因子：6.817 ）

ISSN： 0168-1699

年卷期： 2022 年 196 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： China is one of the largest apple-producing countries in the world, with large orchards and diverse climates. Accurately forecasting the first-flowering time of apple trees can assist orchard managers in their deciding when to apply anti-freeze. The temperature-driven sequential model from previous studies can be used to forecast the flowering phenology of deciduous fruit trees. However, this model requires many years of observational data for calibration, so flowering forecasts based on traditional phenological models cannot be implemented in areas that lack such historical data. To overcome this problem, the present work combines a spatial rather than a temporal phenological survey method with 1-km-gridded temperature products to calibrate the chill and heat requirement parameters of the sequential model. We then use the model to forecast the first-flowering on a regional scale for Luochuan and Linyi, which are two main apple-producing areas of China. The results show that the proposed method accurately forecasts regional flowering. The root mean squared errors (RMSE) for Luochuan and Linyi were 4.7 and 4.4 days, respectively, and the normalized RMSEs were all less than 5.19%. We expect the proposed regional first-flowering forecast method to be an important aid to optimize orchard management.

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