Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of Decapterus macarellus in the South China Sea
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Shen, Qikun 1 ; Zhang, Peng 1 ; Yu, Wenming 1 ; Xiong, Pengli 5 ; Cai, Yancong 1 ; Li, Jie 1 ; Chen, Zuozhi 1 ; Fan, Jiangtao 1 ;
作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Fishery Sci, South China Sea Fisheries Res Inst, Guangzhou 510300, Peoples R China
2.Shanghai Ocean Univ, Coll Marine Living Resource Sci & Management, Shanghai 201306, Peoples R China
3.Minist Agr & Rural Affairs, Key Lab Sustainable Utilizat Open Sea Fishery, Guangzhou 510300, Peoples R China
4.Guangdong Prov Key Lab Fishery Ecol & Environm, Guangzhou 510300, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Trop Marine Bioresources & Ecol LMB, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Appl Marine Biol LAMB, Guangzhou 510301, Peoples R China
关键词：
SDMs;
期刊名称：JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING （ 影响因子：2.8； 五年影响因子：2.8 ）
ISSN：
年卷期： 2025 年 13 卷 1 期
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： This study examines the potential distribution of Mackerel scad (Decapterus macarellus) in the South China Sea under future climate scenarios (SSP 1.26, SSP 2.45, SSP 5.85) using an ensemble species distribution model (SDM). Key environmental variables included sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth (MLD), chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL), and sea-bottom temperature (SBT). Results show that SST and MLD are the primary drivers of habitat suitability, with current suitable habitats concentrated in the northern offshore areas. Projections for the 2050s and 2090s indicate a reduction in suitable habitats, particularly under high-emission scenarios, with more gradual reductions under low-emission scenarios. Habitat loss is most pronounced in the northern South China Sea, while the central region is projected to see an expansion of suitable habitats. These findings highlight the climate impact on D. macarellus distribution and inform sustainable management strategies for the species in the region.
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