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Uncertainty in CENTURY-modelled changes in soil organic carbon stock in the uplands of Northeast China, 1980-2050

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Liu, X. Y. 1 ; Zhao, Y. C. 1 ; Shi, X. Z. 1 ; Liu, Y. 1 ; Wang, S. H. 1 ; Yu, D. S. 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil Sci, State Key Lab Soil & Sustainable Agr, 71 E Beijing Rd, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

2.Jiangsu Vocat Coll Agr & Forestry, 19 E Wenchang Rd, Jurong 212400, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, 17 Yuquan Rd, Beijing 100039, Peoples R China

4.Jiangsu Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Informat, 50 Zhongling Rd, Nanjing 210014, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

5.Anhui Univ Sci & Technol, 168 Taifeng St, Huainan 232001, Peoples R China

关键词： Agricultural SOC; Uncertainty analysis; Global sensitivity analysis; CENTURY model

期刊名称：NUTRIENT CYCLING IN AGROECOSYSTEMS （ 影响因子：3.27； 五年影响因子：3.767 ）

ISSN： 1385-1314

年卷期： 2019 年 113 卷 1 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Process-based models have been successfully applied to predict long-term changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) at plot scales, but considerable uncertainties are still introduced into regional or national extrapolations due to the lack of spatially explicit information on the model input parameters. Using the CENTURY model we predicted SOC changes in the uplands of Northeast China during the period from 1980 to 2050 and provided 95% confidence intervals regarding the uncertainties associated with variability in the key input parameters. Regional SOC estimation predicted by CENTURY was reliable for the uplands of Northeast China when considering the uncertainty associated with heterogeneous key input parameters. SOC stocks were estimated to be 0.99, 0.88 and 0.87 Pg C in 1980, 2010 and 2050, with 95% confidence intervals ranging from 0.69 to 1.31, 0.66 to 1.11, and 0.69 to 1.07 Pg C, respectively. Overall, the upland soils of Northeast China functioned as a carbon source from 1980 to 2010, with a net decrease of 106 (9-207) Tg C. The SOC losses mainly occurred where SOC contents were high (Heilongjiang Province and eastern Jilin Province). However, assuming unchanged management, whether the uplands of Northeast China will serve as a carbon sink/source over the next 40 years remains uncertain. Information collection on the most influential input parameters (the initial SOC content and clay content) is critical to reduce uncertainty and to provide meaningful information for decision makers.

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