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Response of rice production to climate change based on self-adaptation in Fujian Province

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Jiang, M. 1 ; Shi, C. L. 2 ; Liu, Y. 2 ; Jin, Z. Q. 2 ;

作者机构： 1.Fujian Agr & Forestry Univ, Coll Crop Sci, Fuzhou, Peoples R China

2.Jiangsu Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Econ & Informat, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

期刊名称：JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE （ 影响因子：1.476； 五年影响因子：1.891 ）

ISSN： 0021-8596

年卷期： 2017 年 155 卷 5 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Climate change has greatly affected agricultural production, and will lead to further changes in cropping system, varietal type and cultivation techniques for each region. The potential effects of climate change on rice production in Fujian Province, China, were explored in the current study with CERES-Rice model and climate-change scenarios, based on the self-adaptation of rice production. The results indicated that simulated yields of early rice in the double-rice region in south-eastern Fujian under scenarios A2, B2 and A1B increased by 159, 180 and 192%, respectively, and correspondingly those of late rice increased by 92, 74 and 74% when self-adaptation adjustment was considered, compared to scenarios without that consideration. In the double-rice region in north-western Fujian, simulated yields of early rice increased by 212, 205 and 189% and those of late rice by 147, 148 and 72% under scenarios A2, B2 and A1B, respectively, when self-adaptation was considered, compared to without consideration. Similar results were obtained for the single-rice region in the mountain areas of north-western Fujian, correspondingly increasing by 49, 50 and 29% when self-adaptation was considered compared to when it was not. In this single-rice region, double rice might be grown in the future at the Changting site under scenarios A1 and B2. When the self-adaptation adjustment was considered, the simulated overall output of rice crops in Fujian under scenarios A2, B2 and A1B increased by 59, 52 and 51%, respectively. Thus, more optimistic results were obtained when the self-adaptation ability of rice production was considered.

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